Monday, January 02, 2006

Evo Morales, the new "headache"

Evo Morales, the President-elect of Bolivia, just finished a visit to Cuba. AP, describing the visit, "informs" its readers that "The 79-year-old Castro has been one of the U.S. government's biggest headaches in the region during his 47 years in power." "Headache"? Aside from some immigrants (whose yearly numbers are less than those arriving from Mexico in a week), Cuba has never "done anything" to the United States. By contrast, the U.S. government has been just a bit more than a headache to Cuba, more like a near-fatal disease.

If there is any reason why Cuba should be a "headache" to the U.S., perhaps Morales' visit provides a clue. Most news coverage of the event, like this one from the Los Angeles Times, just mention the visit (and the "headache"). The longer AP article mentions that "Cuba will now offer up to 5,000 scholarships annually to Bolivian college students," which is 5,000 more than the U.S. will be offering (or has offered cumulatively in the entire history of the country). But only a single U.S. source that I can find, CNN International, offers these more extensive details:
During the visit, the two men announced a 30-month plan to erase illiteracy in the South American nation as Cuba moves to increase hemispheric cooperation without U.S. influence.

Cuba also agreed to offer free eye operations to up to 50,000 needy Bolivians with vision problems, as well as 5,000 full scholarships for young Bolivians to study medicine on the island.
Millions of Bolivians able to read, and tens of thousands more with improved vision, just might finally be able to see the true nature of imperialism. And that is definitely enough to give the U.S. ruling class a headache.

Venezuela lista para apuntalar su independencia financiera

Luego de un crecimiento de su economía en 9,5 por ciento durante 2005, Venezuela se prepara para una nueva expansión en 2006, cuando podría también dar un fuerte impulso a su independencia financiera internacional.

Esta perspectiva se desprende de los informes de la Asamblea Nacional, que prevé asimismo un crecimiento del ocho por ciento del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) el próximo año, resultado de los precios del petróleo y la diversificación económica.

De acuerdo con la valoración de Rodrigo Cabezas, presidente de la Comisión de Finanzas parlamentaria, 2006 podrá ser el año del inicio de la cancelación de la deuda externa para Venezuela, libre ya de ataduras con el Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI).

Según su criterio, el país estará en condiciones de pagar al Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, al Banco Mundial y la Corporación Andina de Fomento y dar inicio a un proceso que en tres años liberaría a la nación sudamericana del peso de la deuda externa.

Aunque el Presidente Hugo Chávez no se ha manifestado específicamente sobre esa propuesta, Cabezas estima que el Jefe de Estado -un crítico regular de los organismos financieros internacionales- ’está contento con esa idea’.

Venezuela debe a esas tres entidades unos tres mil millones de dólares, cifra similar al superávit de su balanza de pago este año que se aspira a llevar a cuatro mil millones en 2006, mientras sus reservas de divisas rondan los 30 mil millones de dólares.

La propuesta del legislador deberá primero recibir el respaldo del Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV), pero lo cierto es que se enmarca en el contexto de independencia internacional fijado por el Gobierno de Chávez.

Igualmente se sustenta en resultados satisfactorios de una economía que demuestra estar en capacidad de crecer diversificándose con el apoyo de su renta petrolera.

El país produce unos 3,3 millones de barriles de diarios de petróleo y se ubica en el quinto puesto mundial entre los exportadores con precios para sus hidrocarburos estimados de 46 a 50 dólares por barril para los próximos 12 meses.

Los análisis indican asimismo que el repunte del 9,5 por ciento del PIB estuvo dado en una proporción importante por los aportes del sector no petrolero, como resultado de una política de diversificación impulsada por el Jefe de Estado.

Aunque la propuesta de una agresiva política de pago de la deuda externa no fructificara, evidencia en si misma la fortaleza económica de un proceso de cambios económicos que lleva implícito un alto contenido social.

En cumplimiento de las promesas que lo llevaron a la Presidencia en 1999, Chávez aplica en siete años de gobierno una redistribución de los beneficios de la renta petrolera mediante la puesta en marcha de numerosos programas sociales.

Concebidos como ’misiones’, al margen pero apoyadas por las instituciones oficiales relacionadas, esos programas lograron la erradicación del analfabetismo y la incorporación de 16 millones de venezolanos a planes gratuitos de salud y educación, entre otros.

Economistas consultados estiman que la importancia de apuntalar y ampliar estos programas pudiera llevar a posponer la propuesta de liquidación de la deuda externa, en un país donde la pobreza supera el 70 por ciento de la población.

Otros, sin embargo, opinan que la independencia financiera redundará a corto plazo en la disponibilidad de mayores recursos para ampliar y profundizar los programas sociales, a los que en enero próximo se sumará una ofensiva contra la pobreza extrema.

La decisión deberá tomar en cuenta complejas ecuaciones financieras pero sustentadas por una economía floreciente y una visión de desarrollo diferente a la que provocó la dolorosa paradoja de una miseria extendida a la sombra de las torres petroleras.

Cinco preguntas sobre Bolivia ante la victoria de Evo Morales

1) ¿Qué papel ha jugado Bolivia para la política norteamericana en relación con América Latina en el siglo XX?

2) ¿Qué factores han hecho posible la elección de Evo Morales como presidente de Bolivia, por tan amplio margen?

3) ¿Qué reacción se puede esperar del gobierno de EEUU ante la victoria electoral de esta fuerza política?

4) ¿Qué significado le atribuye al papel que puede jugar Bolivia en el nuevo mapa de relaciones políticas de América Latina?

5) ¿Echará, por fin, a andar el indio en Nuestra América, como quería Martí?

1)
Ya en tiempos de la Guerra del Pacífico (1879-1883), por la que Bolivia perdió todo su litoral a manos de Chile, Estados Unidos trataba de controlar la explotación de recursos naturales de la región, en competencia con Gran Bretaña. Avanzado el ciclo del estaño, la banca norteamericana hizo empréstitos y adquirió acciones de las compañías mineras, y la Standard Oil obtuvo una enorme concesión sobre el petróleo del sudeste del país. Esa compañía y la Shell británica estuvieron detrás de la terrible guerra por el Chaco, entre Bolivia y Paraguay, que costó a ambos países 90 000 muertos entre 1932-35. Críticos norteamericanos de la expansión imperialista de su país habían estudiado tres casos seleccionados, a fines de los años 20: Cuba, República Dominicana y Bolivia. Esta última investigación, de Margaret A. Marsh, se llamó Our Bankers in Bolivia, y fue compañera de las obras de Nearing y Freeman, Jenks, Dunn y Knight.

La historia posterior de las injerencias y el saqueo yanquis en Bolivia --sobre todo desde que esta potencia imperialista obtuvo la supremacía en América Latina y el Caribe, respecto a los otros centros capitalistas--, es más conocida. Pero no se puede comprender ningún caso de dominación neocolonial sin manejar la historia interna y los problemas fundamentales del país neocolonizado. Y yo no puedo abordar ese tema aquí. Llamo al menos la atención sobre la compleja acumulación que puede contener un país que es casi diez veces del tamaño de Cuba, pero sin salida al mar y con menos población que esta isla.

Hace cuarenta siglos, la civilización de Tiahuanaco era la más avanzada de Sudamérica. La comunidad tipo ayllu sostenía una gran población con gran diversidad agrícola y alimenticia, y técnicas desarrolladas. Hace mil años eran capaces de organizarse en gran escala. Pero hoy el Estado boliviano rige a la población con mayor proporción de pobreza de Sudamérica, y en 180 años de existencia independiente no ha tenido más que momentos de institucionalidad, estado de derecho y gobiernos representativos de la voluntad popular. Hace 450 años el país poseía la mayor ciudad de América –Potosí--, basada en una explotación de la plata que no tenía igual en el mundo; sólo en el siglo XIX pudo Buenos Aires aspirar a ser un polo más atractivo y predominar sobre el Alto Perú. Pero la mita convertida en el instrumento de la más cruel expoliación, la deculturación, explotación feroz y humillación permanente de la antigua población autóctona –que sigue siendo con sus descendientes la gran mayoría de la población de Bolivia—crearon una sociedad monstruosa en que una minoría de rasgos europeos monopoliza el poder, las grandes empresas, el bienestar material y la educación y las formas de vida a las que se asigna valor.

Colonialismo, viejo y nuevo, es el concepto que permite calificar esta realidad y ese resultado histórico del despojo a todo un pueblo de su cultura y de sus medios de vida, de sus derechos y sus valores. Capitalismo es el sistema mundial que creó esta monstruosidad, como ha creado tantas otras a lo largo y ancho del planeta, en aras de la ganancia y del poder.

2)
El crecimiento acelerado de la combatividad y la movilización populares durante los últimos cinco años, que han aportado experiencias y cada vez más conciencia y autovaloración a enormes sectores del pueblo. La conversión de las identidades autóctonas –que nunca dejaron de existir-- en fuerza social popular, y en instrumentos de formación de posiciones políticas y de exigencia de reivindicaciones sociales opuestas al sistema de dominación secular que ha tenido el país. Setenta años de concientización y de actividades políticas que han dado formas nacionales a las representaciones sociales y arraigo en Bolivia prácticamente a todas las ideologías y movimientos sociales y políticos de crítica o de franca oposición a la dominación capitalista.

A la reunión de esos tres factores se ha sumado el desgaste reciente de la política económica de los gobiernos llamados democráticos, y del sistema político en su conjunto, después de más de veinte años de ejercicio. La cultura política de los bolivianos --y de los latinoamericanos—ha crecido a un grado descomunal respecto a la existente hace una o dos generaciones, y ese es el gran logro que estamos heredando de las luchas y los sacrificios precedentes. Por eso el empobrecimiento del pueblo y el entreguismo de los de arriba no es esta vez un episodio más de una historia que se repite, y puede ser el prólogo de una transformación profunda de la gente y del país, es decir, de una revolución.

3)
Lo más probable es una escalada de presiones sobre el nuevo gobierno, a través de los medios y las instituciones que Estados Unidos controla, para que modere cada vez más sus propósitos, y permita la mediatización y el desgaste de sus iniciativas y de las demandas populares. Es decir, exigirle que sea “respetable”, para no perder “legitimidad democrática” ni arriesgar la “gobernabilidad”. Combinar esa estrategia con el aprovechamiento de las diferencias internas, para tratar de convertirlas en divisiones y en enfrentamientos dentro del campo popular. En suma, debilitar y erosionar el alcance y el contenido del gobierno popular, para generar desconfianza y desilusión, conseguir si es posible que se descalifique, y con el fracaso de esta experiencia revertir el gran avance obtenido por el pueblo boliviano, durante un período más o menos largo.

Esa estrategia parece aún más lógica porque el imperialismo no cuenta con cartas políticas de derecha o de centro en Bolivia para una oposición eficaz. La victoria de Evo ha sido aplastante, eliminando el espacio para los rejuegos legislativos y los acuerdos obligados para lograr formar gobierno, con sus consecuentes ataduras por compromisos y por cuotas de poder. Los partidos del sistema se agotaron durante décadas en los más variados pactos polítiqueros, y practicaron la represión, la imposición del neoliberalismo y la corrupción, sin ningún recato. La masa en la calle desde el 2003 les anunció su quiebra.

Sin embargo, no es sano confiar demasiado en la lógica. La prepotencia ha sido un componente histórico del comportamiento político imperialista en casos como estos. La “misión”, el antintelectualismo y la agresividad como política no son anécdotas sino estrategia del grupo dominante en la política norteamericana actual. Y más fríamente, ellos ven el mismo escenario que nosotros: la victoria de Evo es un tremendo refuerzo a la posible formación de un frente de Estados latinoamericanos autonomizados del control norteamericano, y es un hecho que alienta a todo el campo rebelde a la dominación en el continente, y estimula a los revolucionarios. Frente a esa realidad, habría que estar atentos a la contraofensiva yanqui, y a los medios y momentos que ella estime apropiados.

Por otra parte, el racismo y los hábitos de mando de los que han dominado en Bolivia, el odio que mueve a la violencia extrema a los que sienten el temor de perder su poder, sus privilegios y su pretendida superioridad a manos de los humildes, ha sido siempre un factor importante en todos los grandes procesos de cambios de una sociedad. Cuánto pesen estos socios menores del imperialismo, pero que son los que están sobre el terreno, pondrá también la impronta de lo contingente, que es tan relevante en todos los eventos históricos.

4)
Ya empecé a contestar esta pregunta en la respuesta anterior. Agregaría algunos puntos a desarrollar. Un territorio muy estratégico para el avance de una integración económica sudamericana, que puede encontrar ayuda para su viabilidad desde una formación económica débil y mediterránea, y a la vez brindar una ayuda valiosa a la conexión entre Venezuela, Brasil, Argentina y Uruguay, y también con Paraguay, Perú y Chile, si avanza más la integración; un país que cuenta con inmensas reservas de gas, y que podría aprovechar más otros recursos suyos, e intercambiar con ellos. Un gobierno popular que tiene vocación y necesidad de aliarse con otros gobiernos populares, para multiplicar sus fuerzas y fortalecer su posición

Ideológica. Un campo de prueba para las relaciones entre sociedad civil y poder, entre un sistema político de predominio popular y los movimientos sociales, en un país en que estos últimos han sido la vanguardia de las protestas y el cambio en la correlación de fuerzas. “Mandar obedeciendo al pueblo”, ha recordado Evo, él mismo un hombre nacido para vegetar en la miseria, que se formó en un movimiento de lucha de gente humilde trabajadora. Bien, obedeciendo, pero teniendo el gobierno y construyendo un poder desde el gobierno, es decir, teniendo modos de mandar.

Un líder aymara presidiendo una nación latinoamericana, significa una victoria extraordinaria de los pueblos originarios, once años después del alzamiento zapatista, en una época en que estas identidades se han afirmado a lo largo del continente y han generado organizaciones, conciencia y presencia cívica, y han producido experiencias muy notables, como es el caso de Ecuador. Esto fortalece y concreta las nuevas formas de hacer política –con nuevos contingentes de participantes--, tan necesarias para que sea posible la liberación de las dominaciones, y el potencial de vínculos internacionalistas diversificados, que es indispensable. También enriquece el campo cultural de la liberación, con ideas que deberán formar parte de los nuevos proyectos socialistas. Ver, por ejemplo, los Principios ideológicos acordados por el Congreso del MAS en Cochabamba, hace cuatro años, y los veintíun principios enunciados en el Congreso de Oruro, en el 2003. No se trata meramente de un nuevo lenguaje, se trata de nuevos contenidos –como el equilibro con la naturaleza o el rechazo de los principios de la economía occidental--, que se han venido enunciando por movimientos indígenas, y que ahora deberán concurrir a la creación de una nueva sociedad en Bolivia.

Bolivia puede llegar a ser, en el desarrollo de un nuevo mapa político latinoamericano y caribeño, otra experiencia y creación cultural socialista del siglo XXI, como puede llegar a serlo la revolución bolivariana. Son indicadores de que este continente puede aportar –frente al riesgo mortal que corre la humanidad—alternativas que concurran a la superación del capitalismo.

5)
Lo que Martí pensó del “indio”, y del echar a andar que le pedía, sólo puede ser comprendido como un aspecto de su concepción de nuestra América y de la necesidad del cambio social revolucionario. A mi juicio, Martí toma la especificidad de la América Latina y el anticolonialismo como sus puntos de partida e instrumentos intelectuales, inicia los análisis críticos de la modernidad desde el mundo colonial y el anticolonialismo, y hace una propuesta singular de superación del colonialismo mediante procesos de liberación que instituyan individuos más libres y capaces, constructores de sociedades liberadas con Estados nacionales, creaciones de ciudadanía y justicia social. Por eso Martí es tan actual, y su propuesta no ha sido superada todavía.

Más de un siglo después, la región ha recorrido un prolongado camino de modernizaciones bajo el capitalismo y el neocolonialismo, que ha terminado por depauperar sus sociedades y dejarla sin salida dentro de ese sistema. Pero también ha sido un largo camino de acumulación cultural favorable a un planteo muy superior de liberación, para las personas, los grupos sociales y las naciones. Las vanguardias actuales de los pueblos autóctonos hablan, en sus propios lenguajes, de revolución, una revolución que acabe con el sistema de dominación que se los niega todo, y que transforme las relaciones entre las personas, y de ellas con la naturaleza. Eso es una maravilla, porque están proponiendo el único proyecto viable, no para ellos sino para todo el pueblo, y participando como protagonistas en su puesta en práctica.

24 de diciembre de 2005
Entrevista realizada por Julio Cesar Guanche

Carta de Pérez Esquivel a George Bush

Lunes, 26 de diciembre de 2005

Carta de Pérez Esquivel a George Bush

El Premio Nobel de la Paz argentino, Adolfo Pérez Esquivel publicó una carta cuyo destinatario es el Presidente de Estados Unidos, George W. Bush, el pasado 23 de diciembre, en vísperas de las fiestas de fin de año

El texto de la carta lo presentamos a continuación:

Sr. Presidente de Estados Unidos de Norte América

Sr. George Bush

Debo decirle que dudé mucho en volver a escribirle otra carta; no se si leyó la anterior que le enviara para la Navidad del 2004; pero más allá de su lectura, señor Presidente, usted ha demostrado que no quiere escuchar nada más que a su grupo de poder para imponer su voluntad imperial a los demás. Si he decidido enviarle otra carta, fue motivado por un ex Presidente de EEUU, Jimmy Carter, Premio Nóbel de la Paz; quien dice: Ya me cuesta reconocer a estos Estados Unidos.

Señala que en estos últimos años, me sentí cada vez más preocupado por muchas políticas de gobierno que amenazan hoy principios básicos. Entre éstos figuran el compromiso con la paz, la justicia social y económica, las libertades civiles, nuestro medio ambiente y los derechos humanos.... Peligran también compromisos históricos, vinculados con facilitar a los ciudadanos información veraz, respetar las voces del disenso. Y Carter continúa señalando y denunciando que: Nos hemos convertido en los principales culpables de la proliferación nuclear, invalidando y derogando casi todos los acuerdos sobre control de las armas nucleares... y que hacen denodados esfuerzos los dirigentes políticos para ejercer un dominio imperial en todo el mundo.

La gravedad de las afirmaciones de Carter llevan a una real preocupación sobre el rumbo que su gobierno está llevando. El ex Presidente señala con toda claridad que todas esas políticas fueron orquestadas por aquellos que creen que el tremendo poder de EEUU no debiera limitarse. Hace referencia a la frase que usted señalara: Están con nosotros o en contra nuestro, y dice que su gobierno reemplazó la formación de alianzas basadas en una comprensión clara de los intereses mutuos, incluida la amenaza del terrorismo. De mayor preocupación es el hecho que EEUU repudió los Acuerdos de Ginebra y abrazó el uso de la tortura en Irak, en Afganistán y Bahía de Guantánamo.

Resulta molesto ver que el Presidente y el Vicepresidente insisten en que la CIA debería tener la libertad para perpetrar un trato o castigo cruel, inhumano o degradante contra personas que se encuentran bajo la custodia de EEUU. Entre otras cosas, Jimmy Carter muestra su preocupación por lo que llama un cambio fundamentalista en muchas casas de culto y en el gobierno a medida que la Iglesia y el Estado se fueron interrelacionando cada vez más.

Hasta ahora, en la carta, no he hecho otra cosa que transcribir las declaraciones y preocupaciones del ex Presidente Jimmy Carter, a quien, lamentablemente, le cuesta reconocer a su país transformado en un imperio.

¿Hacia dónde va señor Presidente Bush? Usted está arrastrando a su país y al mundo a situaciones límites; está cruzando las fronteras de lo posible y transformándose en un peligro para la humanidad, en ese afán por identificar a todos los que se oponen a sus deseos como terroristas, cuando es su política la que aplica el terrorismo de Estado, con los mismo mecanismos que utilizara durante las dictaduras militares en el Cono Sur. Recordemos el Plan Cóndor, y los métodos aberrantes como el secuestro y la desaparición de personas. Hoy muchos países europeos reclaman explicaciones al Departamento de Estado, por utilizar sus territorios y aeropuertos para los traslados clandestinos de secuestrados por la CIA y llevados para someterlos a las torturas en otros países.

A pesar de todo, habla de democracia. Y pretende imponer, diría mejor, la democradura, en elecciones dirigidas, en Irak. Las elecciones no garantizan la democracia, si son impuestas bajo el terror de las tropas de ocupación. Y por otra parte desconoce las resoluciones de las Naciones Unidas. Son muchas las violaciones cometidas y los crímenes de lesa humanidad de los cuales es usted responsable. Sería una larga lista de delitos cometidos, no es la intención de ésta carta señalarlos, pero son conocidos y sufridos por los pueblos.

Entre las resoluciones de la Asamblea General de la ONU, por mayoría abrumadora, con sólo 4 votos en contra, y 196 a favor, votaron para que levante el bloqueo a Cuba. Pero su sordera intencionada, y soberbia, desconocen la resolución de la Asamblea General y continúa con el bloqueo e instala bases militares en el mundo y en América Latina, somete a gobiernos y los extorsiona para que permitan el ingreso de tropas estadounidenses, como en Paraguay, en Centroamérica, Ecuador y Colombia, entre otros.

Ha invadido países como Haití, junto con Francia y Canadá y después reclama a la ONU el envío de tropas de otros países que suman actualmente más de 7400 efectivos, entre ellas, lamentablemente, tropas latinoamericanas.

Jimmy Carter lo dice con mucha claridad. Usted ha transformado a EEUU en un Estado terrorista, lo mismo que sus cómplices Blair y Berlusconi.

Creo, Señor Presidente, que el pueblo de EEUU debe ponerse de pié y pedir su renuncia y procesarlo por crímenes contra la humanidad. Usted no es digno de dirigir a ese país, que sabe de luchas sociales, de construir nuevos caminos.

El pueblo de EEUU tuvo épocas de fuerte participación social. Se opusieron a la guerra en Vietnam; asumieron la lucha por los Derechos Civiles que lideró Luther King; hubo grandes movilizaciones de rechazo a la Escuelas de las Américas, entre muchas otras gestas heroicas de resistencia social, cultural y política. No puedo dejar de recordar a Henry Thoreau, quien se niega a pagar impuestos, injustos, que iban a ser utilizados en la guerra contra México y asume la cárcel antes de ceder a las injusticias; los trabajadores en Chicago reclamando sus derechos y muchísimas otras manifestaciones de rechazo a las injusticias y desvíos del poder, entre ellos exigirle la renuncia al presidente Nixon.

Por último Señor Presidente, le pido, le exijo, le reclamo, deje de agredir y violar los Derechos Humanos de las personas y los pueblos. Usted tiene la obligación de respetar y contribuir con su gobierno para atender a los más necesitados, la pobreza, el analfabetismo y la discriminación racial, y a los inmigrantes en EEUU. Es urgente abolir la pena de muerte, pues nada han logrado con matar a más de 1.000 presos, sólo sumar más muertes y no lograr disminuir los delitos.

Es necesario que libere a los cinco prisioneros cubanos acusados injustamente de terrorismo, y que respete el derecho de sus familias a visitarles. La Corte de Justicia de EEUU ha determinado serias irregularidades en el proceso.

Es necesario que termine con los ataques contra Venezuela, en particular contra su Presidente Hugo Chávez. Es necesario que cambie su política de querer imponer a otros países sus condiciones. El fracaso que tuvo en la Cumbre de las Américas en Mar del Plata, Argentina, al intentar imponer el tratamiento del ALCA, a pesar del apoyo de México y Chile, le tiene que hacer reflexionar que los pueblos no son manejables y pasivos, tienen la fuerza y presencia para que se respeten sus derechos.

No debe olvidar que hay nuevos emergentes sociales, culturales y políticos en el continente y el mundo, es necesario que transforme su agresión en cooperación, su violencia y carrera armamentista, en proyectos de desarrollo para la vida y no para la muerte. No sé si tendrá el coraje de leer esta carta o seguir su camino autista, de todos modos le pido que lea las declaraciones del ex Presidente de los Estados Unidos, Jimmy Carter, que transcribo en ésta carta, creo que le ayudarán a comprender y corregir caminos equivocados.

Siempre existe la Esperanza. Los cambios son posibles. Un Nuevo Año significa la renovación y la posibilidad de construir nuevos caminos.

Le saludo con Paz y Bien.

Adolfo Pérez Esquivel / Premio Nóbel de la Paz

Statement by JBG on 12th Anniversary of (Zapatista Army of National Liberation) Uprising

Statement by JBG on 12th Anniversary of Uprising
Originally published in Spanish by the JBG
**************************************
Translated by irlandesa



Resistencia Hacia un Nuevo Amanecer Caracol

El Camino del Futuro Good Government Junta

Chiapas, Mexico


December 31, 2005


Compañeros, compañeras, support bases of the Zapatista Army of National Liberation, brothers and sisters of national and international civil society, good evening to everyone.

Today it is 11:50 minutes southeastern time. Welcome to our Resistencia Hacia un Nuevo Amanecer Caracol. Once again we are joining together, men, women, boys, girls, young people and old ones, to remember and to celebrate the 12th anniversary of the armed uprising, and we are also remembering our compañeros who fell in combat in 1994. Please be so kind as to accompany us in observing a moment of silence.

There have been 12 steps forward in building its history and making a reality of its transformation of struggle. And for 12 years we have also worked to strengthen and to build what did not exist before. Now there is hope and dignity for men, women, indigenous and non-indigenous to continue struggling with rebellion. Our Caracol of Resistance is a name of dignity, but we are the ones who give it shape. We are the ones who struggle, live and die. We are those of rebel dignity. We are the ones who built it and work it and watch over it in its growth..

Compañeros and compañeras, EZLN support bases, for 12 years we have been resisting attacks of all kinds. They have attacked us with bullets, with torture and jail, with lies, contempt and forgetting, but here we are, and we, the most small of this land, shall continue. And here we will continue being zapatistas, even though the bad government wants to do away with our Autonomous Municipalities, which they attentively listen to and watch. They do not want what they see. This struggle has begun, and no one can stop it.

Brothers and sisters of civil society, our hearts are made glad today to share with you, and we give you greetings of hope. It is only by being together and only as brothers that we can really respect each other and help each other, shoulder to shoulder, demonstrating to the powerful of the color of money and to those who exploit that there are many hearts in the world which are joined together, who help each other, who work united together in things they have in common, helping each other in their struggles and respecting each other's differences in order to build that new world where many worlds fit.

The true peoples have sown different works through autonomy, and they are working like the most first peoples. When it is the new moon, as it is now, they sow, in order to yield good fruit to feed themselves, through that, for the future.

Autonomy has allowed the peoples to build their regulatory, political, economic, social and cultural systems by themselves. We want autonomy so that we are all of value all the time, so that the one who governs, governs obeying.

They have named their different authorities and different committees for the operation of the Autonomous Municipalities and the Good Government Junta, so they will keep working. It is not necessary to be zapatista in order to be taken care of and respected by the authorities in any part of our rebel territory. We, the zapatistas, are not going to attack anyone, not those brothers who are not zapatistas. We will be respectful with all our indigenous brothers, without regard to their organization, their party or their religion, always and as long as they respect us. The people themselves decide when to change or remove a compañero from a position, but none of the compañero authorities can receive any salary.

Brothers and sisters, the Good Government Junta is grateful to this zapatista village, La Garrucha, to everyone, men, women, boys, girls, young people and old ones who have helped us through their great efforts in giving us this space for the gathering and who are continuing to organize more in order to move forward with our revolutionary struggle by the zapatista support base compañeros and grateful also to national and international civil society.

Brothers and sisters, we have nothing else to give you other than our seeds of hope, other than our rebel and indigenous dignified hearts. Take them in order to continue scattering more seeds among your different peoples of the world.

Liberty, justice and democracy.

Viva Compañero Sup Comandante Insurgente Marcos
Viva the EZLN.
Vivan the peoples in resistance.
Viva the Resistencia Hacia un Nuevo Amanecer Caracol.
Viva national and international civil society.
Viva the people of La Garrucha.
Vivan the Clandestine Revolutionary Indigenous Committees.
Vivan the compañeros fallen in combat in 1994.
Vivan the Autonomous Municipalities in resistance.
Viva the Sixth Declaration of the Selva Lacandona.
Viva the Other Campaign.

"Escalation" or "Retaliation": Israeli Attacks on Palestinians - The Politics of Language By JAMES PETRAS

It is commonplace to read each day in newspapers such as the Financial Times, New York Times, London Times and Washington Post of Israeli "retaliation". The reportage frequently mentions the fetaliation as following a Palestinian attack on an Israeli colonial settlement in the West Bank or urban population center in Israel. The action and reaction always is located in a limited time frame. Palestinian action is always the initial moment and the Israeli military attack is always described as a response or "retaliatory" and therefore, presumably a form of defensive action, "justifiable".

Thus what appears as objective reportage on two sets of military actions, is in fact an arbitrary selection of time frames which lays the basis for a highly biased interpretive framework. The pro-Israeli tilt, evident in the chosen time sequence, and the framework, are derived from the general ideological argument which portrays Israel as a democracy, defending itself from Arab-Muslim terrorists and not an expansionist colonial power engaged in violent ethnic cleansing and large-scale long-term forced population expulsion.

What is absent from the reportage in such "news" accounts is the sequence of events preceding the Palestinian attacks. Here we are likely to find a series of Israeli military incursions, bombings and killing of non-combatants, summary executions of political prisoners, as well as arbitrary arrests, home demolitions and illegal (even by colonial standards) land seizures.

An examination of readily available, well-documented weekly reports by Palestinian Center for Human Rights, throws a wholly different light on the context and framework for understanding the sequence of events and, equally important, the nature and goals of the Israeli state.

Bush and Blair Plot Their Exit Strategy, as the Nation Falls Apart at the Seams - The Year in Iraq

This was the year in which the US admitted it was not going to defeat the insurgency. It was the ebb tide of American and British power in Iraq. By the end of the year both countries were urgently looking to withdraw their troops in circumstances not too humiliating to themselves and without precipitating the complete collapse of the Iraqi state.

The failure of the US and Britain to win the war does not mean that the two-and-a-half year uprising among the Sunni Arabs has achieved all its aims. The beneficiaries from President George W Bush's invasion of Iraq in 2003 are not the Sunni but the Iraqi Shia and the Kurds. Outside Iraq, the country which has gained most from the fall of Saddam Hussein is Iran.

The year began and ended with elections. The first, on January 30, was critical in demonstrating the electoral power of the Shia community. The United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shia parties, triumphed. This was hardly surprising since the Shia make up 60 per cent of the Iraqi population. But it was a political earthquake in Iraq after so many centuries of Sunni dominance. The verdict of the January poll was confirmed by the election on December 15 for the National Assembly, which will sit for four years.

The political landscape of post-Saddam Iraq is becoming clearer but the country still looks as if it will be a very violent place. A striking feature of present-day Iraq is that there are multiple centers of power, which as they conflict create numerous friction points. Authority is fragmented. The US has power, but so do the three main communities: the Sunni and Shia Arabs and the Kurds.

This much is very evident on the ground in Baghdad. In a Sunni district of west Baghdad, the local police pack up and go home at 8pm. "I am leaving now and the resistance will take over," explained one policeman as he got into his car. "If I stayed around here I would be killed." In Ramadi, the capital of rebellious Anbar province, west of Baghdad, insurgents took over the city centre for four hours in December, despite the presence of powerful US and Iraqi military units.

What is the Sixth Zapatista Declaration? A Bit of History as the “Other Campaign” Begins in the City of San Cristóbal de las Casas

Reporting from Chiapas for the Amado Avendaño Figueroa Brigade
January 1, 2006

The sixth comes before the seventh and after the fifth. What was the Fifth Declaration from the Lacandon Jungle? Few remember, but the history of the Zapatistas is written through the declarations that the EZLN (Zapatista Army of National Liberation) has released, beginning with the first: the declaration of war. The second: a call to civil society. The third: a call for the creation of a National Liberation Movement. The fourth: the formation of the Zapatista National Liberation Front. The fifth: the Consulta Nacional, the great dialog with all Mexicans except the government. And now, the Sixth, the initiation of the “Other Campaign,” the political struggle that exists outside the electoral farce.

In the words of Subcomandante Marcos, "Together, we’re going to shake this country up from below, lift it up, and stand it on its head."

Mexico's geographic shape resembles a cornucopia, the mythological "Horn of Plenty," but in reverse; the horn's fruits tumble out toward the United States of America, toward the gringos. It is a funnel shape, the top wide and the bottom thin. Chiapas is the country's "last frontier," the north being its "first" one. But on the other hand, Chiapas forms the crown of Central America, the beginning of the great nation; Chiapas is a strategic point for North American business.

The Sixth Declaration from the Lacandon Jungle proposes realizing a national campaign for the building of another way of doing politics, for a program of national leftwing struggle, and for a new Constitution.

Sunday, January 01, 2006

Imperialism and its young admirers

Democracy talk was a sham, and realists in Washington are getting worried as the vacant character of the neo-cons is exposed for what it is: adolescent, dangerous bravado

"Al-Ahram" -- -- Apart from the inevitable readjustments necessitated by having become bogged down in a bloody and intractable situation in Iraq, Washington's policy towards the region remains essentially the same. Spreading democracy was not originally one of its aims, and it was not the goal of the Iraqi parliamentary elections, the Palestinian presidential elections or the Saudi municipal elections, which nonetheless have been cheered as the first tender shoots of a democratic future. Following all these elections, violence in Iraq intensified and spread in new directions. In spite of these elections, the US bore down on regimes that were targets for the policy the US secretary of state dubbed "constructive destabilisation". Meanwhile, Washington's allies in the region have become increasingly bolder in making it choose between accepting them with all their corruption and the spectre of radical political Islam.

The US still acts as though it is at the beginning of a historic mission in the region, as Britain had in the wake of World War I. Bush showered Sharon with promises in an exchange of letters in April 2004 that have a strong whiff of the Balfour Declaration. Then, as surreptitiously as Sykes and Picot, the US began to draw up plans for dividing the Middle East. Although these British and French colonial architects used their pens and straightedges to carve their map onto countries, Washington is carving up countries along sectarian and ethnic lines.

It's More Important Than Halting Nuclear Proliferation - Let's Stop a US/Israeli War on Iran

Let's Stop a US/Israeli War on Iran

By BILL and KATHLEEN CHRISTISON
Former CIA analysts

The peace movements of the entire world should be in crisis mode right now, working non-stop to prevent the U.S. and Israel from starting a war against Iran. (See the James Petras article in CounterPunch on December 24, 2005 titled Iran in the Crosshairs for the best summary of the present situation.) The reckless and unnecessary dangers arising from such a war are so obvious that one wonders why normal political forces in the two aggressor countries -- both of whom love to glorify themselves as democracies -- would not prevent such a war from happening.

But the "normal political forces" in both the U.S. and Israel have become badly distorted. Democracy has been seriously undermined in both. The cowboy-like personalities and aggressive tendencies of both countries' leaders tend to feed on each other. Domestic political difficulties and coming elections in both countries probably add to the macho inclination of the ruling elites to use force to remove any problems facing them. The glue binding these tendencies together is the ever-strengthening institutional link between defense establishments and military-industrial complexes in both countries, as well as, in the U.S, the growing power and influence of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) over both major political parties. The entire mix increases the probability, against all common sense, that this absurd war will actually happen.

Nothing else more dangerous to the world, to the Middle East, to the oppressed Palestinians, or to the true interests of the United States is happening today -- anywhere. Americans who do not want an eruption of a new world war, started by our own government, ought to be strongly lobbying the Bush administration and all members of Congress against supporting any military action by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Globally, people who oppose such a war should be lobbying their own governments in similar fashion.

Depleted Uranium suspected in Iraq merc's death (CHICKENS COMING HOME TO ROOST)

The death of a Peruvian security guard who had worked in Iraq may have been caused by exposure to depleted uranium.

Wilder Gutierrez Rubio, 38, died a few hours after arriving in Lima, Peru, on Dec. 6. Days before, he had been diagnosed with severe leukemia at Ibn Sina Hospital in Baghdad and immediately flown back to his home country, World Socialist Web Site.Org reported Wednesday.

WSWS.org said Gutierrez was part of a 200-man Peruvian contingent sent to Iraq in early October to provide security for Baghdad's Green Zone. It is widely suspected in Peru that Gutierrez's leukemia was the result of exposure to high levels of uranium in Iraq, the site said.

Gutierrez was one of more than 1,000 Latin Americans recruited by U.S. private security contractors to work in different countries.

Since the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, about 20,000 people have been hired to work as private security contractors, WSWS.org said. This figure represented one private security guard for every seven uniformed American soldiers in these regions. In all, $30 billion was spent by the U.S. Government on private security contractors in 2004, the Web site said.

Corporatism, more commonly termed fascism, has arrived, just in time to hail the arrival of America’s tomorrow.

Throughout human history certain patterns continue repeating themselves over and over again, becoming, if careful attention is paid to study them, a direct harbinger to what tomorrow’s cultures and societies will be like. The inevitability of what a future generation’s destiny will become is oftentimes discernable from the accumulated sins of the fathers that came before as well as those of the grandfathers that no longer exist, over years accruing and building upon each other until the future becomes the unstoppable rollercoaster birthed from the damage that was done in the past.

Tomorrow’s fate follows the path of the slow to evolve human condition and of our raw animalistic emotions and psychologies that have for millennia remained unchanged, following the same direction and trends, the same inability to change, though multiplied by advanced technologies, societal complexity, environmental stresses and increases in populations. It can be read buried inside the forgotten writings of historians and in the investigations of anthropologists, for the patterns endemic to our existence are bountiful, traversing oceans and continents, sparing no corner of human habitation, prevalent to all peoples and all times.

What we will become can be analyzed by studying the research of evolutionary psychologists and that of modern day zoologists. The patterns of our descendants can be deciphered examining the perpetual hierarchy of castes and the habitual social engineering of entire groups demonizing humankind for tens of thousands of years. It can be foretold by the never ending rule of peasants by the Establishment, the exploitation of the masses by the elite and by the willing, seemingly masochistic subservience of the many to the will of the few, as if authoritarian systems of governance are inbred into the human condition, making us mammals thriving on the suffering and heartache ingrained with being governed by tyrants and despots.

Evo Morales invites 200 social organizations to his inauguration¡

LA PAZ, December 28. — Bolivia’s President-Elect Evo Morales plans to turn his inauguration, to which he has invited close to 200 organizations, into a “world summit of social movements” according to his spokesperson, Alex Contreras.

The Yahoo in Spanish news website cited Contreras who confirmed that everyone is to be present at this “world summit of social movements,” including leaders of the Argentine Piquiteros, the Mexican Zapatistas, the Landless Movement of Brazil, the Venezuelan Bolivarian Circles and the National Indigenous Council of Ecuador.

The following personalities have also confirmed their attendance at the ceremony: Argentine soccer star Diego Armando Maradona, singers Piero of Argentina and Silvio Rodriguez of Cuba, and Nobel Prize for Literature winner José Saramago. Morales’ list of invitees also includes Colombian Nobel Laureate Gabriel García Marquez; Nelson Mandela, former South African president; Nobel Peace Prize winners Rigoberto Menchú and Aldolfo Pérez Esquivel; and Uruguayan writer Eduardo Galeano.

Contreras assured that some 800 press corps are expected in La Paz for the ceremony.

According to official figures, Morales won 54% of the votes, but the National Electoral Council (CNE) is to submit the final results on January 5 once a revote has been held for 15 tables that were not functioning on election day, stated Oscar Hasserteufel, CNE president. These results are not expected to modify the final count.

Our Struggle is Against US Imperialism - I Believe Only in the Power of the People By EVO MORALES

This is the text of a speech given on December 24 at the "In Defense of Humanity" conference.

What happened these past days in Bolivia was a great revolt by those who have been oppressed for more than 500 years. The will of the people was imposed this September and October, and has begun to overcome the empire's cannons. We have lived for so many years through the confrontation of two cultures: the culture of life represented by the indigenous people, and the culture of death represented by West. When we the indigenous people--together with the workers and even the businessmen of our country--fight for life and justice, the State responds with its "democratic rule of law."

What does the "rule of law" mean for indigenous people? For the poor, the marginalized, the excluded, the "rule of law" means the targeted assassinations and collective massacres that we have endured. Not just this September and October, but for many years, in which they have tried to impose policies of hunger and poverty on the Bolivian people. Above all, the "rule of law" means the accusations that we, the Quechuas, Aymaras and Guaranties of Bolivia keep hearing from our governments: that we are narcos, that we are anarchists. This uprising of the Bolivian people has been not only about gas and hydrocarbons, but an intersection of many issues: discrimination, marginalization , and most importantly, the failure of neoliberalism.

Israel's Corruption Was Inevitable - The Spoils of War

You can't have war without corruption. The history of war is inseparable from histories of corrupt power and social debasement. War attracts corruption like corpses attract flies. When a country elects "to remain on a wartime footing," the rot can get pretty deep. Americans should know all about this.

We are nearing the end of the fourth decade of Israel's chronic war of occupation of Palestinian lands. The web of corruption spun by this festering wound has had plenty of time to reach into the deepest nooks and crannies of both Palestinian and Israeli societies.

America's decisive support of Israel's war, including more than 100 billion dollars and dozens of UN vetoes, has ensnared us in the same web. To sustain the unending flow of money and materiel, American politics has had to yield to the ways of the war: lies, denial, and intimidation.

At this point, it's difficult to understand anyone's surprise or indignation at the state of Palestinian society in the territories. What would your community be like, after suffering nearly a century of colonial hell under the British and the Israelis, being driven off your land and made stateless refugees nearly sixty years ago? If now you were being fenced and walled inside the scraps of your last refuge, could your once strong and resilient social fabric resist unraveling into corruption, gang warfare, and economic destitution?

Documents Detail British and U.S. WWII Racist Views

British World War II troops were told to show respect for the U.S. Army's racial segregation practices, according to government documents published Sunday.

Other documents released for the first time show that British Prime Minister Winston Churchill was determined to have Adolf Hitler executed if captured, and that he favored letting India's Mohandas Gandhi die if he went on a hunger strike while interned during the war.

The guidelines about U.S. soldiers were issued following agonized debate within Churchill's Cabinet over how to deal with American rules.

Black British troops - most from colonial outposts - shared facilities with their white counterparts, but white American soldiers ate and slept separately from their black comrades.

The Cabinet meeting records showed British officials were eager to avoid clashes in protocol between the Allied forces. However, they were also unwilling to cause friction among British troops by segregating their own barracks and canteens.

In October 1942, Churchill told the Cabinet that the views of the United States must be considered.

"Nothing to stand between U.S. offr (officer) and his troops: we mustn't interfere,'' notes of the meeting record him saying.

Home Secretary Herbert Morrison agreed, but added: "What I won't have is B(ritish) police enforcing their rules for them.''

Secretary of State for War Sir James Grigg insisted that "we won't discriminate in our canteens.''

The documents also chart other Cabinet discussions from 1942-45 over how to deal with senior members of Hitler's Nazi party if they were caught.

"Contemplate that if Hitler falls into our hands we shall certainly put him to death,'' Churchill said at a Cabinet meeting in December 1942, according to notes taken by Deputy Cabinet Secretary Sir Norman Brook.

"This man is the mainspring of evil.''

In April 1945, Home Secretary Herbert Morrison said a "mock trial'' for Nazi leaders would be objectionable: "Better to declare that we shall put them to death,'' he said.

Churchill agreed that a trial for Hitler would be "a farce.''

Later, Churchill proposed that Britain negotiate what to do with Nazi leaders such as Gestapo head Heinrich Himmler - who had already sought secret peace talks with Britain - and then "bump him off later.''

Gandhi's fate was discussed when he went on a hunger strike while interned during World War II.

Britain was unwilling to allow Gandhi to campaign against the war while Britain's India colony was under threat of invasion by the Japanese.

Gandhi was held in the Aga Khan's palace in August 1942 after speaking out against India's involvement in the fight against Nazi Germany and demanding civil disobedience.

After much discussion, ministers decided in January 1943 that although they could not publicly give in to a hunger strike, they would be willing to release Gandhi on compassionate grounds if he seemed likely to die.

Churchill retorted: "I would keep him there (in prison) and let him do as he likes.''

Gandhi was freed in 1944.

American Jews' split personality By Avi Beker (in HAARETZ)

The attack by AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby in the U.S., on the Bush administration over its handling of the Iranian nuclear question, is unprecedented. It took the shape of a broad media campaign that included press releases and targeted members of Congress. Last week the Washington Post, which is read by the top political echelon in the capital, noted that this is the first time that AIPAC has issued broad and open criticism of the Bush administration. In a background paper that AIPAC officials distributed among members of Congress, the pro-Israel lobby describes Bush's recent policy decisions on Iran as "dangerous" and "disturbing," and even claims that they are actually helping Iran to achieve nuclear capability.

The Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, which mounted a similar offensive, refrained from directly criticizing the president and called on its member groups to exert pressure on Congress and foreign governments, and to send letters to top administration officials. Earlier, organization leaders like Abe Foxman of the Anti-Defamation League had argued that this issue should not be made into a "Jewish" struggle like the fight for Soviet Jewry in the past, or the fight against Palestinian terrorism.

However, AIPAC chose a more militant line, and consciously decided to criticize the White House after the administration decided last month to accept the more conciliatory Russian approach, which recommended avoiding an open confrontation with Iran in the UN Security Council for the time being. According to media reports, Bush even shared his problems with the Jewish lobby with British Prime Minister Tony Blair.

Anyone observing the political trends and moods in the American Jewish community cannot but raise an eyebrow over what seems to be a split personality. Alongside the massive attack on the passiveness the Bush administration is demonstrating in everything related to Iran, the media - especially the Jewish press - gave extensive coverage last week to the results of an annual survey conducted by the American Jewish Committee. The survey reported that 70 percent of American Jews oppose the U.S. involvement in Iraq, an opposition rate that is about 10 percent higher than among the general public. After refraining until now from publicly expressing opposition to the war, several Jewish organizations have also decided to openly come out against it.

The decline in the popularity of the war led the Reform movement to issue a call at its annual convention last month for all American forces to be pulled out of Iraq. The decision generated a public dispute on the pages of the New York Times, when a Republican Jewish group published a giant advertisement in support of Bush and criticized the decision by the Reform movement. President Bush himself referred to this at a meeting of the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia in mid-December, saying that he expected people who care about Israel's existence and security to support the administration's efforts to strengthen democracy in the Middle East.

From a historical perspective, one could argue that the president of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is replacing Saddam Hussein in the pretension to lead the Middle East and develop nuclear capabilities, and in threatening Israel. And, indeed, the Jewish media has expressed the sentiment that opposition among the majority of American Jews to the war in Iraq is detrimental to the effort to pressure the administration to display much greater firmness toward Iran.

AIPAC and the proponents of a tough line in the Jewish community will soon have to convince not only the administration but also a Jewish majority that is skeptical about American involvement in the Middle East. The American Jewish Committee's survey results indicate that the camps within the Jewish community are clearly divided according to religious streams, with the Orthodox on one side and Reform and Conservative Jews on the other. Seventy-eight percent of Reform Jews, for example, oppose the war in Iraq, compared to 38 percent of Orthodox Jews.

A similar split is evident on the questions of dividing Jerusalem, the separation fence, identification with Israel and visits to Israel. In accordance with these same camps, American Jews are also divided on domestic issues such as the separation of church and state. The leadership of AIPAC certainly believed that support for the firm stance against Iran would grow after the anti-Semitic statements of the president of Iran, but the double messages coming out of the Jewish community in regard to American involvement in the Middle East are liable to weaken the Jewish lobby in its struggle against the administration on the issue of Iran.

American Road Leads Off a Cliff by Holly Sklar

THE AMERICAN DREAM doesn't need to go on a diet in the new year. It's been shrinking for years.

We are becoming a nation of Scrooge-Marts and outsourcers -- with an increasingly low-wage workforce, instead of a growing middle class. Even two-paycheck households are struggling to afford a house, college, health care and retirement.

The American Dream is becoming the American Pipe Dream.

"The vast majority of American workers (70 percent) think 'the American Dream' has been or will be harder for them to financially achieve than it was for their parents' generation," according to the Principal Financial Well-Being Index.

We are living the American Dream in reverse.

The hourly wages of average workers are 11 percent lower than they were back in 1973 (adjusted for inflation), despite rising worker productivity. CEO pay, by contrast, has skyrocketed -- up a median 30 percent in 2004 alone, in the Corporate Library survey of 2000 large companies.

Median household income has fallen an unprecedented five years in a row. It would be even lower if not for increased household work hours. Americans work over 200 hours more a year on average than workers in other rich industrialized countries.

We are breaking records we don't want to break. Record numbers of Americans have no health insurance. The share of national income going to wages and salaries is the lowest since 1929. Middle-class households are a medical crisis, an outsourced job, or a busted pension away from bankruptcy.

The congressional majority voted the biggest cut in history to the student-loan program, at a time when college is more important, and more expensive, than ever. Public-college tuition has risen even faster than private tuition, jumping 54 percent over the last decade (adjusted for inflation).

Our shortsighted government, beholden to powerful campaign contributors and lobbyists, is cutting rungs from the ladders of upward mobility, while cutting taxes for the superwealthy.

That's not the American Dream.

Contrary to myth, the United States is not becoming more competitive in the global economy by taking the low road. We are in growing hock to other countries. We have a huge trade deficit, a hollowed-out manufacturing base, and deteriorating research and development. The infrastructure built by earlier generations has eroded greatly, undermining the economy, as well as public health and safety.

Households have propped themselves up in the face of falling real wages by maxing out work hours, credit cards and home-equity loans. This is not a sustainable course. The low road is like a shortcut that leads to a cliff.

We will not prosper in the 21st Century global economy by relying on 1920s corporate greed, 1950s tax revenues, pre-1970s wages, and global-warming energy policies.

We will not prosper relying on disinvestment in place of reinvestment. We can't succeed that way any more than farmers can "compete" by eating their seed corn.

As Business Week put it in a special issue on China and India, "China's competitive edge is shifting from low-cost workers to state-of-the-art manufacturing. India is creating world-class innovation hubs, and its companies are far better performers than China's."

The United States will not succeed by shifting increasingly from state-of-the art manufacturing and world-class innovation hubs to low-cost workers.

Contrary to myth, many European countries are better positioned for the future than the United States, with healthier economies and longer healthy life expectancies, greater math and science literacy, free or affordable education from preschool through college, universal health care, less poverty, and more corporations combining social responsibility and world-class innovation.

Among the world's 100 largest corporations in 2005, just 33 are U.S. companies, while 48 are European. In 2002, 38 were U.S. companies and 36 were European. CEO-worker pay gaps are much narrower at European companies than American.

The United States dropped from number one to number five in the global information-technology ranking by the World Economic Forum, whose members represent the world's 1,000 leading companies, among others. The top four spots are held by Singapore, Iceland, Finland and Denmark, with Sweden number six.

Instead of pretending the problem is overpaid workers and accelerated offshoring, we need to shore up our economy from below and invest in smart economic development. Let's make that our New Year's resolution for the American Dream.

Wall Street Journal Spins a Bolivian Fairy Tail

Last week the Wall Street Journal weighed in on Bolivia's elections, with a fairy tail of a piece. The article below by Mary Anastasia O'Grady’s ("All About Evo") correctly cites the Cochabamba water revolt as the spark that set Bolivia's anti-'Washington Consensus politics into high gear. She then relies on totally discredited five-year-old spin from the PR staff of former President Hugo Banzer to explain what happened. It is actually embarrassing, really.

This just proves how utterly wrong writers can be when they try to paint themselves as experts about places they have never been. It also doesn’t say much for the journalistic standards of the Wall Street Journal. Below is my letter to the editor of the WSJ and then the original article.

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Dear Editor,

The role of economic globalization in Bolivia's recent presidential election is certainly worthy of debate. However, it also worthy of a debate based on actual facts, as opposed to the unfortunate misrepresentation of the facts included in Mary Anastasia O'Grady's recent WSJ article ("All About Evo", 12-23-05).

O'Grady is quite correct in suggesting that the citizen revolt against water privatization in 2000, in which the Bechtel Corporation was kicked out of the country, was the spark that ignited a string of events that led to the election of Evo Morales as President earlier this month. That makes her twisting of the facts surrounding the water revolt all the more serious.

First, the reason that citizens revolted against Bechtel had nothing to do with coca farmers, as O'Grady suggests, and everything to do with Bechtel raising water rates for the poor an average of nearly 50% overnight, and in many cases by much more. Second, it was not the citizens of Bolivia who rioted but the government. A former dictator, Hugo Banzer, responded to peaceful protests by sending 1,200 national police to take over the country's third largest city. An army sharpshooter, caught on camera, shot an unarmed 17 year old in the face and killed him.

These well-documented facts, and others, may not lend themselves to the ideological myth that O’Grady seeks to market, but they are facts. They are also a good part of the reason that Bolivians are justifiable skeptical of the suggested wonders of the Washington Consensus formula of privatization.

Jim Shultz
Executive Director
The Democracy Center
Cochabamba, Bolivia

George W. Bush as the New Richard M. Nixon: Both Wiretapped Illegally, and Impeachably, By JOHN W. DEAN

George W. Bush as the New Richard M. Nixon: Both Wiretapped Illegally, and Impeachably;
Both Claimed That a President May Violate Congress' Laws to Protect National Security

On Friday, December 16, the New York Times published a major scoop by James Risen and Eric Lichtblau: They reported that Bush authorized the National Security Agency (NSA) to spy on Americans without warrants, ignoring the procedures of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA).

It was a long story loaded with astonishing information of lawbreaking at the White House. It reported that sometime in 2002, Bush issued an executive order authorizing NSA to track and intercept international telephone and/or email exchanges coming into, or out of, the U.S. - when one party was believed to have direct or indirect ties with al Qaeda.


Initially, Bush and the White House stonewalled, neither confirming nor denying the president had ignored the law. Bush refused to discuss it in his interview with Jim Lehrer.

Then, on Saturday, December 17, in his radio broadcast, Bush admitted that the New York Times was correct - and thus conceded he had committed an impeachable offense.

There can be no serious question that warrantless wiretapping, in violation of the law, is impeachable. After all, Nixon was charged in Article II of his bill of impeachment with illegal wiretapping for what he, too, claimed were national security reasons.

These parallel violations underscore the continuing, disturbing parallels between this Administration and the Nixon Administration - parallels I also discussed in a prior column.

Indeed, here, Bush may have outdone Nixon: Nixon's illegal surveillance was limited; Bush's, it is developing, may be extraordinarily broad in scope. First reports indicated that NSA was only monitoring foreign calls, originating either in the USA or abroad, and that no more than 500 calls were being covered at any given time. But later reports have suggested that NSA is "data mining" literally millions of calls - and has been given access by the telecommunications companies to "switching" stations through which foreign communications traffic flows.

In sum, this is big-time, Big Brother electronic surveillance.

Superpower vulnerability By Henry C K Liu

That the US is now the world's sole remaining superpower is above challenge. This status has affected the United States' approach to formulating foreign and domestic policies in the post-Cold War era.

In foreign policy, the US has been operating on the basis that its national values have been validated by triumph in the Cold War and that its resultant sole-superpower status now earns it both the moral right and the military means to spread such values over the whole world. Resistance to such self-righteous values is now deemed evil by US moral imperialism, in need of elimination not by persuasion but by force. This new approach has made the world less safe than it was during the Cold War, the end of which briefly entertained a false hope for a new age in which a world with only one superpower could thereafter live without war, hot or cold. Instead, the world has been plunged into successive holy wars of imperialistic moral conquest by the sole remaining superpower, bringing escalating terrorist attacks on to the US homeland. The impact on domestic policy from terrorist threats has in turn been the wholesale suspension of civil liberties in the name of homeland security.

Ex-envoy to Uzbekistan goes public on torture (THANKS TO WORLDWIDE BLOGGER SUPPORT)

THANKS TO THE WORLDWIDE POSTING OF THESE "SECRET" DOCUMENTS BY MY BROTHER AND SISTER BLOGGERS...

Ex-envoy to Uzbekistan goes public on torture

Britain's former ambassador to Uzbekistan, Craig Murray, has defied the Foreign Office by publishing on the internet documents providing evidence that the British Government knowingly received information extracted by torture in the "war on terror".

Mr Murray, who publicly raised the issue of the usefulness of information obtained under torture before he was forced to leave his job last year, submitted his forthcoming book, Murder in Samarkand, to the Foreign Office for clearance. But the Foreign Office demanded that he remove references to two sensitive government documents, which undermine official denials, to show that Britain had been aware it was receiving information obtained by the Uzbek authorities through torture. Rather than submit to the gagging order Mr Murray decided to publish the material on the internet.

The first document published by Mr Murray contains the text of several telegrams that he sent to London from 2002 to 2004, warning that the information being passed on by the Uzbek security services was torture-tainted, and challenging MI6 claims that the information was nonetheless "useful". The second document is the text of a Foreign Office legal opinion which argues that the use by intelligence services of information extracted through torture is not a violation of the UN Convention Against Torture.

The Bush Family Coup By James Ridgeway

Son revisits the sins of the father on America.

Washington - The 9-11 attacks provided the rationale for what amounts to a Bush family coup against the Constitution.

From the outset, President George Bush used 9-11 to reorganize and increase the federal government's reach far beyond any existing law to delve into the lives of innocent, ordinary people. The new powers allowed the government to arrest them at will and to subject them to endless incarceration without judicial review. Some people were sent abroad to be tortured for crimes they had nothing to do with. Who knows how many people have been tortured in American jails? When government employees within the intelligence community sought to protest, the government fired them and made sure they could never get another job in their areas of expertise. This extraordinary program of spying on Americans, much of which was carried out in fishing expeditions under the Patriot Act, has the makings of a consistent and long-range policy to wreck constitutional government.

It is little wonder both left and right have come together to fight Bush and may yet jettison the Patriot Act. Revelations of the domestic spy operation, with its secret wiretaps, ought to supply sufficient evidence to impeach Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney and launch criminal prosecutions of the top federal officials involved in carrying out the program. After all, these people are directly engaged in overthrowing constitutional government. How did this all come about?

Get the Commies

In opening a conference on counterintelligence in March 2005, former president George H.W. Bush, who headed the CIA from 1975 to 1977, said, "It burns me up to see the agency under fire." Recent criticism, Bush said, reminded him of the 1970s, when Congress "unleashed a bunch of untutored little jerks out there" to investigate the CIA's involvement in domestic spying, assassinations, and other illegal activities, and subsequently passed laws to prevent abuses.

Bush was referring to the activities of the U.S. Senate's Select Committee to Study Governmental Operations With Respect to Intelligence Activities, commonly known as the Church Committee after its chair, Idaho Democratic senator Frank Church. Among other things, the committee's 1976 report detailed the workings of the infamous COINTELPRO, an FBI domestic spying program on Civil Rights leaders, anti-war groups, and anyone else who rubbed J. Edgar Hoover the wrong way. The report also detailed illegal domestic activities by the CIA and military intelligence. A simultaneous-and even more contentious-investigation was carried out in the House by the Select Committee on Intelligence, which also came to bear the name of it chair, New York Democratic congressman Otis Pike. The Pike Report focused on the CIA covert actions, as well as on the CIA's overall effectiveness and its budget.

Within days of the 9-11 attacks, officials of Bush the younger's administration and former intelligence chiefs were on the talk shows denouncing the "chilling effect" of the congressional investigations of the 1970s, and of subsequent halfhearted efforts to regulate the work of the intelligence agencies. Paul Bremer, the future head of the Iraq occupation, who had chaired the National Commission on Terrorism from 1998 to 2000, said on CNN that the Church Committee did "a lot of damage to our intelligence services. . . . And the more recent problem was that the previous administration put into effect guidelines which restricted the ability of CIA agents to go after . . . terrorist spies."

Congress lost no time in repealing these rather toothless earlier guidelines, along with a host of other restrictions, especially those safeguarding the privacy of electronic communications. The Senate passed the Combating Terrorism Act of 2001 on September 13, one of its first actions in response to the attacks.

Between 1960 and 1974, the FBI conducted half a million investigations of so-called subversives, without a single conviction, and maintained files on well over a million Americans. The FBI tapped phones, opened mail, planted bugs, and burglarized homes and offices. At least 26,000 individuals were at one point catalogued on an FBI list of persons to be rounded up in the event of a "national emergency." Hoover was particularly obsessed with Martin Luther King and the civil rights movement, which he thought was influenced by communists. The FBI proceeded to undermine the civil rights movement, planting agents among the Freedom Riders (and also the Ku Klux Klan). Hoover put spies into the ranks of labor activists and of Democratic Party insurgents during the 1964 presidential campaign.

Meanwhile, the CIA began spying domestically. The Agency planted informants of its own within the United States, especially on college campuses. Between 1953 and 1973, they opened and photographed nearly a quarter of a million first-class letters, producing an index of nearly 1.5 million names. Under something called Operation CHAOS, separate files were created on approximately 7,200 Americans and over 100 domestic groups. In 1964, the CIA even created a secret arm called the Domestic Operations Division, the very name of which flew in the face of its legal charter. Back then, there were no "communications problems" between the two agencies.

Raise the Wall

In documenting all this, the Church Committee concluded the intelligence community had engaged in actions "which had no conceivable rational relationship to either national security or violent activity." The report of the House's Pike Committee documented a history of CIA covert actions, as well as notable intelligence failures. As a result the CIA got out of domestic spying and the FBI supposedly pulled back from its orgy of homeland snooping. Some rather modest oversight was applied, the most important of which led to the creation of the "the wall." This refers to application of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). FISA was enacted in 1978, in the wake of the congressional investigations, as a compromise that would allow the FBI and other domestic law enforcement to carry out counterintelligence operations while putting some sort of restraints on COINTELPRO-type abuses. Under FISA, the FBI could continue to do things like conduct searches and tap phones without traditional search warrants and without probable cause, as long as agents were targeting terrorists, spies, or other purported enemies of the United States, and as long as they got permission from a secret FISA court.

There was concern from the start that FISA would be used to circumvent the Fourth Amendment in routine criminal cases. So FISA dictated that these warrantless searches and surveillance could be conducted only for counterintelligence purposes, and not for regular criminal investigations. However, if a FISA search happened to turn up evidence of a crime, this information could be handed over to law enforcement. According to a joint inquiry conducted in 2002 by the Senate and House Select Committees on Intelligence, "the Intelligence Community agencies, perhaps overly 'risk-averse' in dealing with FISA-related matters, restricted the use of information far beyond what was required. The majority of FBI personnel interviewed . . . incorrectly believed that the FBI could not share FISA-derived information with criminal investigators at all or that an impossibly high standard had to be met before the information could be shared. Most did not know [it] could be shared with criminal investigators if it was simply relevant to the criminal investigation."

And anyway, the FBI never stopped its domestic spying. During the '80s and '90s the FBI spied on and/or infiltrated peace and solidarity groups engaged in protesting U.S. involvement in the wars of Central America, put agents into Earth First, and went after the far right, again trying to plant agents and turn participants into informants. The shooting at Ruby Ridge and the raid in Waco galvanized not just the right but the heartland against the Bureau. At Ruby Ridge, it was an FBI sniper killing a mother with a baby in her arms. At Waco it was a monstrous assault on a religious enclave. And the Bureau's handling of the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995-with botched lab work and lost documents-to this day fuels the controversy over the government's role in that catastrophe. Recent evidence suggests a federal agent may have penetrated the gang that conducted the bombing. The informant told her superior, who sat on the information until long after the bombing.

Install Big Brother

The failures of the FBI and CIA in 9-11 were not because of any wall. These agencies failed because they weren't doing their jobs right. The congressional investigation found the CIA couldn't penetrate al Qaeda-an especially odd claim since we had helped to create and finance al Qaeda as an instrument to win the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s. John Walker Lindh and other Americans walked right into al Qaeda and were greeted by its high officials. How come the CIA couldn't do the same? No wall kept the CIA from getting Osama bin Laden. They just couldn't find him. As for how the hijackers got into the U.S., it's hardly a mystery. An FBI informant among the Muslim community in San Diego socialized with two hijackers and rented a room to one of them. When Congress tried to figure out how this happened, the Bureau covered it up, refusing to allow the informant to testify. Again, there was no wall here-just plain incompetence made worse by a deliberate cover-up. The FBI reportedly was informed in April 2001 by a longtime reliable asset of an impending attack using airliners as missiles. It did nothing. An operation known as Able Danger reportedly turned up information on and tracked hijacker Mohammad Atta as far back as 1998, but the Pentagon wouldn't tell the FBI what it knew. Even now, the Bush administration is fighting to prevent the Able Danger officials from testifying before Congress about what they knew and when they knew it. When it comes to intelligence, the only thing worse than the FBI's record is the CIA's.

Given all that's happened, the only explanation for the Bush domestic spying is that it's political. There are no crimes involved here. But there is an over weaning desire by this so-called conservative government to establish and institutionalize a Big Brother regime that tolerates no dissent and wrecks constitutional government.

Cuba, Bolivia Make Literacy, Health Plans

Fidel Castro and Bolivian President-elect Evo Morales say cooperation between their countries will bloom despite U.S. worries about more nations allying with communist Cuba and a growing leftward tilt in Latin American politics.

The two men late Friday announced a 30-month plan to erase illiteracy in Bolivia, the latest move by left-leaning South American leaders calling for increased cooperation among nations in the region without U.S. influence.

Cuba also agreed to offer free eye operations to up to 50,000 needy Bolivians as well as 5,000 full scholarships for young Bolivians to study medicine on the island.

"Could it be that the government of the United States feels hurt that Cuba cooperates with a brother nation?" Castro said. "Does that offend the U.S. government ... is it antidemocratic, is it a crime?"

Morales, 46, said he would not allow himself to be pressured by Washington while in power. "I never had good relations with the United States, but rather with the American people," he said.

Morales, a coca farmer and left-wing activist, says he won't resume the U.S.-backed coca eradication campaign in Bolivia. But he has vowed to crack down on drug trafficking while promoting legal markets for coca leaf, which is used to make cocaine but has medicinal and other legal uses in Bolivia.

Castro and another close ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, have over the past year launched plans to share programs in social cooperation among countries in the region while rejecting a U.S.-backed plan for hemispheric free trade. Washington has expressed concern about their growing alliance.

Speaking to about 400 young Bolivians already studying in Cuba under full scholarships from Castro's government, the two leaders did not spell out details of the literacy plan.

But Cuba has launched similar programs in other countries, most recently Venezuela, sending Cuban advisers with educational materials to work with local instructors to teach reading and writing to disadvantaged people.

Cuba carried out its own literacy program in the first years after the 1959 revolution that brought Castro to power, sending young teachers into poor regions in the island's mountains and other remote areas.

Among the poorest and least developed countries in Latin America, Bolivia nonetheless has a literacy rate of more than 87 percent.

"We have agreed to the first measures of cooperation," Morales said, adding that his meetings with Castro Friday were "an encounter of two generations in the struggle for dignity."

Castro is the first head of state visited by Morales as he starts reaching out to other leaders before taking office.

"Our brother Evo possesses all the necessary qualities needed to lead his country," said Castro, who sported a miner's hard hat given to him by Bolivian mining union leaders who traveled with Morales to Cuba.

Although he won't be inaugurated until Jan. 22, Morales was welcomed by a red carpet, a military band and a smiling Castro when he stepped off the Cuban plane that brought him from Bolivia.

Castro, dressed in his typical olive green uniform, welcomed Morales' election as an important triumph over U.S. influence in the region.

"The map is changing," said the 79-year-old Cuban leader, who marks 47 years in power on New Year's Day.

Morales won the presidency Dec. 18 with nearly 54 percent of the vote _ the most support for any Bolivian president since democracy was restored there two decades ago.

He left Cuba on Saturday to be back in Bolivia in time for a New Year's Eve celebration in his hometown of Orinoca. On Jan. 3, he departs on a world tour that will include Spain, France, Brussels, the Netherlands, South Africa, China and Brazil.

© 2005 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

The Battle For America (a 5 minute video) see it!

The Battle For America:

We have history on our side

http://www.current.tv/studio/media/684.htm

Washington is Planning a Military Strike on Iran.

Recent reports in the German media suggest that the United States may be preparing its allies for an imminent military strike against facilities that are part of Iran's suspected clandestine nuclear weapons program.

It's hardly news that US President George Bush refuses to rule out possible military action against Iran if Tehran continues to pursue its controversial nuclear ambitions. But in Germany, speculation is mounting that Washington is preparing to carry out air strikes against suspected Iranian nuclear sites perhaps even as soon as early 2006.

German diplomats began speaking of the prospect two years ago -- long before the Bush administration decided to give the European Union more time to convince Iran to abandon its ambitions, or at the very least put its civilian nuclear program under international controls. But the growing likelihood of the military option is back in the headlines in Germany thanks to a slew of stories that have run in the national media here over the holidays.

The most talked about story is a Dec. 23 piece by the German news agency DDP from journalist and intelligence expert Udo Ulfkotte. The story has generated controversy not only because of its material, but also because of the reporter's past. Critics allege that Ulfkotte in his previous reporting got too close to sources at Germany's foreign intelligence agency, the BND. But Ulfkotte has himself noted that he has been under investigation by the government in the past (indeed, his home and offices have been searched multiple times) for allegations that he published state secrets -- a charge that he claims would underscore rather than undermine the veracity of his work.

According to Ulfkotte's report, "western security sources" claim that during CIA Director Porter Goss' Dec. 12 visit to Ankara, he asked Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to provide support for a possibile 2006 air strike against Iranian nuclear and military facilities. More specifically, Goss is said to have asked Turkey to provide unfettered exchange of intelligence that could help with a mission.

DDP also reported that the governments of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman and Pakistan have been informed in recent weeks of Washington's military plans. The countries, apparently, were told that air strikes were a "possible option," but they were given no specific timeframe for the operations.

In a report published on Wednesday, the Berlin daily Der Tagesspiegel also cited NATO intelligence sources claiming that Washington's western allies had been informed that the United States is currently investigating all possibilities of bringing the mullah-led regime into line, including military options. Of course, Bush has publicly stated for months that he would not take the possibility of a military strike off the table. What's new here, however, is that Washington appears to be dispatching high-level officials to prepare its allies for a possible attack rather than merely implying the possibility as it has repeatedly done during the past year.

Links to al-Qaida?

According to DDP, during his trip to Turkey, CIA chief Goss reportedly handed over three dossiers to Turkish security officials that purportedly contained evidence that Tehran is cooperating with Islamic terror network al-Qaida. A further dossier is said to contain information about the current status of Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program. Sources in German security circles told the DDP reporter that Goss had ensured Ankara that the Turkish government would be informed of any possible air strikes against Iran a few hours before they happened. The Turkish government has also been given the "green light" to strike camps of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in Iran on the day in question.

The DDP report attributes the possible escalation to the recent anti-Semitic rants by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose belligerent verbal attacks on Israel (he described the Holocaust as a "myth" and called for Israel to be "wiped off the map") have strengthened the view of the American government that, in the case of the nuclear dispute, there's little likelihood Tehran will back down and that the mullahs are just attempting to buy time by continuing talks with the Europeans.

The German wire service also quotes a high-ranking German military official saying: "I would be very surprised if the Americans, in the mid-term, didn't take advantage of the opportunity delivered by Tehran. The Americans have to attack Iran before the country can develop nuclear weapons. After that would be too late."

Despite the wave of recent reports, it's naturally difficult to assess whether the United States has any concrete plans to attack Iranian nuclear facilities. In a January 2005 report in the New Yorker, US investigative journalist Seymour Hersh claimed that clandestine American commando groups had already infiltrated Iran in order to mark potential military targets.

At the time, the Bush administration did not dispute Hersh's reporting -- it merely sought to minimize its impact. In Washington, word circulated that the article was filled with "inaccurate statements." But no one rejected the core reporting behind the article. Bush himself explicitly stated he would not rule out the "option of war."

How great is the threat?

So is the region now on the verge of a military strike or even a war? In Berlin, the issue is largely being played down. During his inaugural visit with US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld in Washington last week, the possibility of a US air strike against Iran "hadn't been an issue," for new German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung, a Defense Ministry spokesman told SPIEGEL ONLINE.

But the string of visits by high-profile US politicians to Turkey and surrounding reports are drawing new attention to the issue. In recent weeks, the number of American and NATO security officials heading to Ankara has increased dramatically. Within a matter of only days, the FBI chief, then the CIA chief and, most recently, NATO General Secretary Jaap De Hoop Scheffer visited the Turkish capital. During her visit to Europe earlier this month, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also traveled to Turkey after a stopover in Berlin.

Leading the chorus of speculation are Turkish newspapers, which have also sought to connect these visits to plans for an attack on Iran. But so far none of the speculation has been based on hard facts. Writing about the meeting between Porter Goss and Tayyip Erdogan, the left-nationalist newspaper Cumhuriyet wrote: "Now It's Iran's Turn." But the paper didn't offer any evidence to corroborate the claims.

Instead, the paper noted that the meeting between the CIA chief and Erdogan lasted longer than an hour -- an unusual amount of time, especially considering Goss had previously met with the head of Turkey's intelligence service, the MIT. The Turkish media concluded that the meetings must have dealt with a very serious matter -- but they failed to uncover exactly what it was. Most media speculated that Erdogan and Goss might have discussed a common initiative against the PKK in northern Iraq. It's possible that Goss demanded secret Turkish intelligence on Iran in exchange. Regardless what the prospects are for a strike, there's little chance a US air strike against Iran would be launched from its military base in the Turkish city of Incirlik, but it is conceivable that the United States would inform Turkey prior to any strike.

Skepticism in Ankara

Until now the government in Ankara has viewed US military activities in the region at best with skepticism and at worst with open condemnation. At the beginning of 2003, Ankara even attempted to prevent an American ground offensive in northern Iraq against the Saddam regime. A still-irritated Donald Rumsfeld has repeatedly blamed military problems in Iraq on the fact that this second front was missing.

Two weeks ago, Yasar Buyukanit, the commander of the Turkish army and probable future chief of staff of the country's armed forces, flew to Washington. After the visit he made a statement that relations between the Turkish army and the American army were once again on an excellent footing. Buyukanit's warm and fuzzy words, contrasted greatly with his past statements that if the United States and the Kurds in northern Iraq proved incapable of containing the PKK in the Kurd-dominated northern part of the country and preventing it from attacking Turkey, Buyukanit would march into northern Iraq himself.

At the same time, Ankara has little incentive to show a friendly face to Tehran -- Turkish-Iranian relations have long been icy. For years now, Tehran has criticized Turkey for maintaining good relations with Israel and even cooperating with the Israeli army. Yet despite those ties to Israel, Ahmadinejad's recent anti-Israeli outbursts were reported far less extensively in Turkey than in Europe.

Still, Erdogan has been demonstrably friendly towards Israel recently -- as evidenced by Erdogan's recent phone call to Ariel Sharon, congratulating the prime minister on his recent recovery from heart surgery. In the past, relations between Erdogan and Sharon have been reserved, but recently the two have grown closer. Nevertheless, Turkey's government has distanced itself from Sharon's threats to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon on his own if nobody else steps up to the task.

The Turkish government has also repeatedly stated that it opposes military action against both Iran and Syria. The key political motivation here is that -- at least when it comes to the Kurdish question -- Turkey, Syria and Iran all agree on one thing: they are opposed to the creation of an independent Kurdistan in northern Iraq. But if the United States moves forward with an attack against Iran, Turkey will have no choice but to jump on board -- either as an active or passive partner.

It's a scenario that has Erdogan and his military in a state of deep unease. After all, even experts in the West are skeptical of whether a military intervention against nuclear installations in Iran could succeed. The more likely scenario is that an attack aiming to stop Iran's nuclear program could instead simply bolster support for Ahmadinejad in the region.