Where is Latin America headed?

OVER the last five years, the situation of Latin American republics has changed substantially both in economic and political terms, due to the push and growing awareness of the peoples. From North to South, progressive governments have come to power by popular decision.

One of the first changes was that brought about by the Bolivarian Revolution with President Hugo Chávez at the helm, who has been democratically ratified several times and consolidated a popular revolution that to date has brought radical changes for the Venezuelan people in health, food, land distribution, the elimination of illiteracy and several international agreements that cover sales of oil and its derivatives, as well as health programs throughout the Americas such as Operation Miracle, carried out jointly with Cuba, thanks to which 100,000 patients have had their sight restored through surgery.

Brazil, with President Lula and his Workers Party, has advanced along political and social lines and has achieved economic recovery to the point of recently canceling a debt with the International Monetary Fund of $15.8 billion. However, in spite of some positive changes, it has not to date been able to satisfy all of the expectations of that southern giant’s millions of people. The greatest enemy for a more rapid improvement is the oligarchies and the high level of corruption that has been accumulating over almost two centuries. But it has taken a step forward.

Another positive result of this growing Latin American integration has been the rejection of the FTAA, sponsored by the U.S. government that had its culminating and definitive moment during the summit held in Mar del Plata. If this U.S. project, plagued with defects – in its favor – had been approved, it would have meant the economic death of all other countries involved, as has occurred with Mexico in the farming sector.

To replace it, ALBA emerged (the Bolivarian Alternative for the America), sponsored by President Chávez in Venezuela.

In the name of ALBA, during all of 2005 agreements have been signed from north to south for oil, gas pipelines and refineries, and import/exports have increased between the continent’s republics.

The rise of Nicanor Duarte to the presidency in Paraguay gave hope to that people of possible change. After many years of dictatorship and submissive governments, this hope has not yet become a reality. The people remain more or less with the same conditions of education, health, housing and food. Dicanor’s greatest error, perhaps, was offering the country’s land to the free transit of U.S. military forces, with impunity. It is well-known that the United States has plans to install more military bases in Latin America and thus strengthen its domination of its peoples and economies.

Since they were given authorization to enter, U.S. soldiers have established themselves in the very heart of the continent, in the triple border area of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil.

The strengthening of Mercosur with Venezuela’s entry is important.

In Chile, for the first time in history a woman, Michele Bachelet, is almost the sure winner of the second round of national eletions to be held on January 15, 2005. Of socialist leanings, it could be nothing more than continuity of the government of current President Lagos. There are no expectations.

In Uruguay, in November of 2004, the people said “Enough!” and practically eliminated the Colorado Party from the political arena after nearly a century of government; the Broad Front, with a coalition of more than 20 political groups, was victorious at the polls, with socialist Tabaré Vázquez becoming president after winning a 51% majority, a percentage that has increased to the current 62%.

The 116-point program of President Vázquez’s government is being implemented little by little. The first task was to create PANES (National Plan of Attention to the Social Emergency), a program to eliminate hunger among low-income people, as well as to provide housing and education with an initial budget of $200 million.

In Argentina, after cruel dictatorships and corrupt governments, President Néstor Kirchner took power, an honest and brave politician. The country, which was on the verge of bankruptcy with the ban on capital withdrawal known as the “corralito” and the bank run, has recovered its economy to the point of recently canceling its debt of $9.8 billion with the IMF. While the government has many social problems to resolve, it is thinkable that it will do so little by little.

In April of this year, elections will be held in Peru, where President Alejandro Toledo has been in power with an abysmally small 10% approval rating.

Doubtless the most resonant political development in the history of the Americas was the December 18 victory by indigenous leader Evo Morales, who leads the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS); he goes down in history as the first indigenous citizen to take power in his country, with 54% of the popular vote.

Little has been said about his proposals for Bolivia’s development. His vision for its natural resources is of particular interest.

Morales and his political base have questioned government policy toward investors regarding the management of natural resources. Evo has proposed a regional process of unity that has at its center the strategic management of resources.

The mobilization of the Bolivian people has taken interesting steps in this direction. In the case of water, and following Uruguay’s example, actions were taken against the privatization contracts of water company Aguas de Illimani, and based on that, former President Mesa had to cancel the contract with the French multinational.

The discussion has also been intense around the Hydrocarbons Law, in order to define the norms under which corporations can exploit that resource in Bolivia, and has always been centered on those companies paying higher taxes to the State. From this year forward, it is estimated that Bolivia will receive about $600 million per year versus the almost $200 million to date. They are enormous sums of money in a country where the Gross Domestic Product is only $8.1 billion and the foreign debt is $5 billion.

The two main questions the new Bolivian government must deal with are political divisions and the undisguised interference of the U.S. government.

Elections are set in Mexico for July 2 of 2006. That country’s 60 million inhabitants will express their will in an electoral event for which it has already been reported that the government will invest $400 million – the most expensive elections in the history of Mexico – and in which Andrés Manuel López Obrador appears as the candidate with the greatest popular support. Also for the first time, Mexicans who reside abroad will be able to exercise their right to vote.

In Central America, the situation of the peoples has not changed; their governments continue to be subject to U.S. influence and interference. The United States maintains pressure over these governments in order to force them to sign free trade agreements. Honduras and Guatemala have already done so; Costa Rica and El Salvador are awaiting approval by their parliaments. The greatest resistance by the Central American peoples lies in the fact that they have not been consulted by their governments, who have carried out these negotiations behind their backs.

In Nicaragua, there will be elections in 2006 and the Sandinistas appear to be the favorites.

Ecuador is awaiting general elections after the overthrow – the third in a row – of its last president, Lucio Gutierrez. The indigenous population is organized and united, giving it sufficient strength to seek, through elections, a government that acts in the interests of the people.

Colombia is presenting serious social problems, which have their origins in the very roots of the republic: political rivalries; political assassinations; drug cartels; guerrilla; paramilitaries; and worst of all, the installation of U.S. military forces, with the pretext of combating drug trafficking in a country it considers to be the biggest exporter of drugs to its territory.

Thus, the United States has introduced into Latin America – through Colombia – bases in Ecuador and most recently in Paraguay, where, even though the government says it is for a limited time and that there won’t be any bases, there are. They have enormous landing strips and all kind of armaments. Colombia’s future is a complex one.

All of this is occurring along with the “diplomatic forces” of the brand-new U.S. undersecretaries of state for Latin America, Otto Reich y Roger Noriega.

There is no doubt that Latin America is advancing; its peoples are uniting and fighting for a better world. The general panorama is optimistic, and many years of struggle are necessary, but the peoples know that neoliberal globalization is a death sentence; that the submissive governments cause social and economic stagnation, and that only with full participation of the people can they one day enjoy freedom in its maximum expression: in culture, economy, education, health, land and housing.