Blog from Bolivia - If Morales Wins, Will He Seek the Presidency?

Predicting the future in politics is always a dubious business. In Bolivia it is dubious en el extremo (Who predicted in 2001 that we would have five different Presidents in five years?). But with an army of fresh foreign reporters headed this way to cover Bolivia’s Presidential vote – many of whom read this Blog – here’s a bit of analysis and prediction that they ought to keep in mind as they try to interpret the strange dance of Bolivia’s unplanned elections.

Rule #1: Winning the Popular Vote is Not Winning the Presidency

Okay, let’s say that the polls are relatively accurate and not much changes between now and December 18th. If that is the case, then Evo Morales and MAS will likely finish in first place with (and this is a guess) somewhere between 30% to 35% of the vote. Tuto Quiroga comes in a strong second place with 25%. Samuel Doria Medina finishes third with 15% or so. The rest of the pack comes in with somewhere between 2% to 5% each.