Oil is a finite resource coveted not just by the industrial West but by growing economies around the world, most notably China.
China used about 8.2 percent of the world's daily oil production in 2004, but it's going to need considerably more in years to come to power its economic expansion.
And here's the rub: Most of it will have to be imported.
Increased competition has already contributed to price spikes in the United States, where nearly 25 percent of the world's oil is consumed. But the threat of production peaking and then declining in years or decades to come has even broader implications for economic and foreign policy.
The big question is how the world would embrace such a decline. By allowing market forces to peacefully allocate the dwindling resources until they're not needed or not available? Or would countries, particularly the United States and China, go to war over access to oil fields around the globe?
Friction points are already evident.