Wednesday, October 05, 2005

HOW A US CURRENCY CRISIS COULD UNFOLD

Imagine going to your bank (probably online) and wanting to take out say 50k, say half of your cash, so you can go buy say, Yen. The bank tells you, "you are only allowed to take out 5k per month, it's a new law." This would be same situation for a brokerage account.

Sound far fetched????

Argentina did that in about 2002. The Argentinean peso collapsed, people wanted to take their pesos and sell for dollars.

The Argentinean government just told the banks, don't let them pull out their money. Freeze the bank accounts.

The peso dropped like a stone and the people with money in the bank... just had to watch... and starve too.

There was rioting in the streets of course, for months.

Sound far fetched for the US? In the early 30's the US declared a bank holiday amidst having bank runs and bank collapses, after the crash of 1929... and subsequent ensuing depression.....Oh and by the way, the US outlawed gold holdings then.... ordered people to turn it in, and gave them the US exchange rate below 30 bucks, then soon after raised the gold price in USD to 35 bucks.....

I get people asking me about holding cash, instead of gold. The above things happen to people like that.

Suppose the US entered a dollar crisis where, say the dollar is collapsing via foreign currencies.... Say just for example, against the YEN. Then millions of people would want to buy Yen, and the US govt would probably just say, "you cannot take out more than 5K per month out of your accounts. IE they freeze your bank accounts, so you cannot go and buy Yen.

People worry about hyperinflation. But currency crises also come and have come to the US even, and in Dec 2004 we were flirting with pre stage events that could have boiled into a dollar crisis, when the USD was dropping fast late 2004.