Tuesday, December 13, 2005

"Intelligence Brief: Elections in Honduras"

In the first of the wave of a dozen presidential elections to be held in Latin America during the next 12 months, voters in Honduras gave the Liberal Party of Honduras (P.L.H.) candidate Manuel Zelaya a narrow edge over his National Party of Honduras (P.N.H.) rival Porfirio Lobo Sosa in November 27 polls. The relatively peaceful and orderly vote was preceded by a campaign marked by vituperative rhetoric and insults from both sides, and was followed by a delay in tallying the results -- explained by computer problems -- that dragged on for a week and precipitated a confrontation between the contending parties that only ended on December 7 when Lobo Sosa conceded defeat.

Analysts are closely watching the unfolding election cycle in Latin America to determine whether it will confirm a shift to the left in the region that has already brought Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay into a grouping that challenges the U.S. plan for a Free Trade Area of the Americas (F.T.A.A.), Washington's strategic dominance of the Western Hemisphere and the "Washington Consensus" on economic policy that promotes market reforms at the expense of regulation and the social safety net.